Electoral research in AM: Braga dehydrates, Wilson Lima grows and stalls Amazonino Mendes

Priscilla Peixoto – Cenarium Magazine

MANAUS – According to the research platform Perspectiva Mercado e Opinião, among the names listed to assume the management of the Government of Amazonas, Amazonino Mendes (no party) and Wilson Lima (PSC) lead the voters’ voting intentions. In contrast, the survey shows a decline in rates when the name is Eduardo Braga (MDB). The survey published on Tuesday, 8, was registered with the Superior Electoral Court and includes a survey conducted in the period between February 23 and March 4.

With the question “If the election were today, which of these names would you vote for? Amazonino Mendes, who on December 27, 2021 had 28.5% of voting intentions, on March 8 this year went to 33.4%. The current governor of Amazonas, Wilson Lima is not far behind, and from 17% in December last year he jumped to 22.5% by the first days of March this year.

Senator Eduardo Braga, fell from 20.2% to 18.6% considering the same period. Soon after Eduardo, the electoral survey indicates other percentages of candidates such as Ricardo Nicolau (Solidarity) and Carol Braz (PDT) Nicolau falls from 8.9 to 6.3% among the names mentioned by respondents the name of Carol also suffers a decrease leaving 3.2% to 2.2%.

João Pedro (PDT) and Marcelo Amil (Polo) appear only in the first days of March with 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. Blank/null votes dropped from 16.0% to 10% of responses. While 5.2% of those interviewed could not answer.

Second round and administrative evaluation

When the question is turned to a second round of voting, the survey shows that in a first scenario Amazonino Mendes takes 46.3% of the voting intentions against only 29.5% for Braga. In a second scenario the sampling reveals 47.4% for Mendes followed by 30.2% for Wilson Lima. Between Eduardo Braga and Wilson Lima in a third scenario, Braga scores 36.0% and Wilson 32.0%. White and null votes oscillate between 1.4 and 1.6%.

When the answer is directed to the evaluation of the Wilson Lima administration 7.9% considered a great administration, 19.6% said good, 38.4% regular and the lowest index 9.2% considered bad. An average of 23.3% said they did not know how to evaluate the current administration.

Senators and presidents

In the senate, the three names most mentioned by the interviewees in their voting intentions are Omar Aziz, Arthur Virgílio Neto and Coronel Menezes respectively. Senator Omar Aziz occupies the first position with 24.7% in the intention to vote for senator of the State of Amazonas. Arthur Virgílio Neto appears with 23.9%, followed by Colonel Menezes, 14.0%. Right after Chico Preto with 10.7% and Luiz Castro with 5.7%.

For the presidency, Lula leads the intentions with 37.5%, followed by Bolsonaro with 36.8% and Moro occupying the third place with 6.6%. Ciro, Dória, Simone Tebet also appear in the voting intentions with smaller proportions being 4.4%, 1.2%, 1.0% respectively.

In a second round scenario, Lula takes 44.2% against Bolsonaro 41.5%. In a second scenario with the names Lula and Sergio Moro, Lula takes 44.0% of the intentions and Moro 30.0%. In a third scenario, Bolsonaro takes 41.6% and Sergio Moro, 28.2%.

Research Methodology

According to Perspectiva, the survey data were collected from 3,600 interviewees, 1,990 from Manaus and 1,610 from the countryside of Amazonas. The maximum margin of error for the total sample is 2.0%, up or down, with a degree of reliability of 98.4%. This means that if a thousand surveys were conducted with the same methodology, 984 would be within the margin of error.

Check out the survey in full.