By Lucas Ferrante – From Cenarium
MANAUS (AM) – The victory of President Lula in the 2022 elections was seen by researchers and environmentalists as an achievement for science and the Amazon, due to the government’s stronger commitment to environmental issues. The journal Nature Human Behaviour highlighted the perspective of researchers who were optimistic about this change in an article entitled The Future of Brazilian Science. However, in my contribution to the journal, I emphasised that the Lula Government still needs to review important issues, such as the repaving of the BR-319 highway and oil and gas exploration in the Amazon, in order to mitigate climate change and other environmental and social impacts.
These same concerns were also highlighted in other scientific journals, such as Environmental Conservation, edited by the University of Cambridge, in an article led by researcher Rodrigo Vilani from the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro. In other words, it is becoming increasingly evident that President Lula’s environmental promises have significantly diverged from what was advocated in his campaign.
Over the past two years, the Amazon has faced an unprecedented drought scenario, particularly in the Upper Rio Negro region, which has caused great concern among researchers. In a study published in the journal Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, we demonstrated that even species currently considered common and not at risk of extinction are already in decline and are expected to disappear within the next 15 to 20 years.
However, the damage of climate change to the Amazon is not limited to biodiversity and rivers. The region may face lethal heatwaves, with a heat index reaching up to 71°C, which could collapse the healthcare system and decimate part of the population of Manaus, particularly the most socially vulnerable, as previously addressed in CENARIUM.
Given this alarming scenario, how can President Lula, a proponent of progressive environmental rhetoric, sanction a law that further exacerbates the factors responsible for these devastating impacts? In the latest edition of Science, one of the most important scientific journals in the world, I highlighted how the sanctioning of Law No. 14,876 by President Lula intensifies drought and compromises the hydrological cycle of the Amazon biome, which is essential for the climatic stability of South America.
The new legislation, which removes forestry from the list of potentially polluting activities, exempting it from environmental licensing and taxes such as the Environmental Control and Inspection Fee, encourages the expansion of eucalyptus monocultures, including in the Amazon region. These large-scale plantations degrade essential ecosystem services, such as soil water storage and landscape evapotranspiration, exacerbating the drought already worsened by deforestation and climate change. Besides compromising the biome, this model impacts rainfall generation in distant regions, affecting agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity in Brazil, increasing the risks of a collapse of the Amazon’s hydrological and climatic services.
Read the full Science publication translated into Portuguese here at CENARIUM:
Title: Threat to the Amazon’s Hydrological Cycle
“In May 2024, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sanctioned Law No. 14,876, which removes forestry from the list of potentially polluting activities, exempting it from the environmental licensing requirement that applies to most agricultural activities in Brazil. The law also amends the National Environmental Policy (Law No. 6,938/81) and exempts forestry from paying tax fees, such as the Environmental Control and Inspection Fee, encouraging the expansion of this type of cultivation in the Amazon. Law No. 14,876 should be revoked to prevent further damage to the Amazon ecosystem.
The altered environmental policy will stimulate an increase in forestry, including large-scale eucalyptus monocultures, which contribute to biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystem services. Large eucalyptus plantations can substantially affect water storage in soils and surrounding ecosystems, including the evapotranspiration process. These hydrological cycles are already overburdened by ongoing deforestation and climatic anomalies.
The Amazon provides essential ecosystem services for South America, particularly climate regulation and evapotranspiration. The forest generates moisture that moves across the continent, sustaining precipitation in distant regions. These broad impacts affect populations, biodiversity, industries, energy production, and agriculture throughout Brazil. The loss of ecosystem services in Brazil’s southern and southeastern regions, in sectors such as agriculture, industry, and services, represents a cost exceeding $1 trillion. In the Amazon, combined water stress with moisture loss tends to result in temperatures exceeding levels suitable for human health and biodiversity.
The Federal Public Ministry and the Judiciary in Brazil must take measures to revoke Law No. 14,876, given its potential to worsen the water crisis, intensifying drought conditions in the Amazon biome and other areas dependent on these ecological services. Furthermore, the main destinations of Brazilian forest product exports—United States, Europe, China, Argentina, and Chile—should limit imports from Brazil to reduce demand and prevent the Amazon from reaching a tipping point, which would lead to the collapse of its water services and climate regulation functions.”
(*) Lucas Ferrante holds a degree in Biological Sciences from the Federal University of Alfenas (Unifal) and a Master’s and PhD in Biology (Ecology) from the National Institute for Amazonian Research (Inpa). Ferrante is the Brazilian researcher with the highest number of first-author publications in the world’s two leading scientific journals, Science and Nature. He is currently a researcher at the University of São Paulo (USP) and the Federal University of Amazonas (Ufam).
Translated from Portuguese by Gustô Alves
