New flood alert predicts that the level of the Rio Negro will reach 29.80 meters and approach a record high

Bruno Pacheco – Cenarium Magazine

MANAUS – The 2nd Flood Alert of the Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB-CPRM) released on Friday, 29, predicts that the level of the Rio Negro will reach 29.80 meters in 2022 and will approach the historical level of 30.02 meters, recorded last year. The number is 40 centimeters higher than the estimate presented in March this year (29.40m) by the agency.

Read also: Flood 2022: six AM municipalities are in a state of emergency, according to the Civil Defense survey

“It is very likely that a significant flood event will happen, but it does not necessarily mean that we will have an event as big as last year. In terms of probability, we see that the flood quota (27.50m) has already been reached on April 5th. As for the severe flood quota (29.00m), the chance that it will be exceeded is 98%”, highlighted the geosciences researcher from SGB – CPRM, Luna Gripp Simões Alves.

Last year, the level of the Negro River reached the highest in history, in 118 years of measurement, on June 16. In relation to this historical maximum, the probability that the water level will be exceeded this year has also increased. According to the new CPRM estimate, the chance that the 2021 mark will be exceeded has risen from 12% to 30%. The river level this Friday, 29, at the Port of Manaus is 28.69 meters.

Flood in the countryside

In Manacapuru, a city in the Metropolitan Region of Manaus (RMM), the behavior of the Solimões River is similar to that of the Negro River, according to the CPRM. The prognosis of the agency is that the water level that bathes the city in the interior of Amazonas will reach 20.35 meters in 2022, considering 80% confidence. The number is also higher than the 1st Flood Warning of this year (19.90m).

The level of the Solimões river this Friday, 29th, is 19.20 meters, according to CPRM. “The probability that we have a very expressive flood, in Manacapuru, is also very high. The flood quota (18.20m) has already been reached there on April 10 and the severe flood quota (19.60m) has a 96% probability of occurrence. Whereas the historical maximum (20.86%) has a small probability of 10% to be exceeded”, highlighted Luna Gripp.

For Itacoatiara, as well as Manaus and Manacapuru, the Rio Amazonas follows similar to the rivers Negro and Solimões, reported the CPRM. The 2nd Flood Alert estimates that the water level that bathes the city will reach 15.05 meters in 2022, that is, closer to the historical maximum of 15.20m recorded in 2021. The river’s mark this Friday, the 29th, is 14.48 meters.

The city reached the flood quota (14.00m), on April 15, and the severe flood quota, on the 19th of this month, according to CPRM. On the other hand, the probability of the Amazon River reaching the historical maximum is also low and is at 30%.

The next CPRM Flood Alert will be released on May 31 this year, with transmission via YouTube, on the CPRM TV channel. TV CPRM.

See the 2nd Flood Alert: