U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement expected to impact projects in the Amazon

By Ana Cláudia Leocádio – From Cenarium

BRASÍLIA (DF) – The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, confirmed by President Donald Trump on Monday, the 20th, is expected to impact Brazil’s cooperation on Amazon-related projects significantly. It will also bring challenges and setbacks to climate diplomacy and global climate multilateralism. These are the assessments of Claudio Angelo, International Policy Coordinator of the Climate Observatory, and Marina Silva, Minister of Environment and Climate Change (MMA).

Approved in 2015 during the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in Paris, the Paris Agreement was endorsed by 195 countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the context of sustainable development. The agreement aims to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

According to Claudio Angelo, the U.S. withdrawal will have little financial impact because the funds promised were “insignificant” and were never effectively made available to the Amazon Fund, which manages resources donated by countries to Brazil for forest protection projects.

“What will be harmful is the broader cooperation”, said Angelo, “because much of our current knowledge of the Amazon and scientific programs, such as the LBA [Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Program in Amazonia], was built with American cooperation.”

Angelo highlighted that the U.S. has been a key partner of Brazil for over 40 years in projects related to forest knowledge, conservation, and resources for indigenous land demarcation (facilitated by USAID). “However, since the 1990s, Brazil has been independently handling much of this work. Therefore, the absence of U.S. involvement might not be as strongly felt in these areas”, he said.

In a statement to CENARIUM, Marina Silva affirmed that the withdrawal of the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (CO2) from the Agreement would undoubtedly have repercussions.
“(…) This is a significant setback and a challenge for global climate diplomacy and multilateralism. Countries committed to addressing climate change, which already impacts all of us, will continue striving to ensure those with historical and current CO2 emission responsibilities fulfill their obligations”, said the Minister.

On Monday night, after Trump’s decision, Marina commented that the move was “the antithesis of evidence-based policy driven by science and the common sense dictated by the reality of extreme climate events, including those occurring in the U.S. itself.”

The Minister pointed out that Joe Biden’s administration’s plans for renewable energy, infrastructure, and green industrialization had received bipartisan support in Congress. All these initiatives were reversed by Trump. “Even the American public won’t accept such negligence, as they face the consequences of the climate emergency daily”, Marina stressed.

Worse for the U.S.

Claudio Angelo criticized Trump’s decision, arguing that it harms the U.S. more than anyone else and is based on the false claim that the Paris Agreement would cost the country over $1 trillion.
“That’s a complete fraud. (…) Economically, the U.S. is at a disadvantage because it’s isolating itself from a renewable energy-driven global economy, which is already well underway. Even within the U.S., some of the states with the highest renewable energy adoption are Republican strongholds”, Angelo explained.

Angelo warned that this decision could trigger a domino effect, encouraging other nations to exit the Paris Agreement. “At a time when international cooperation is already fragile, this could be catastrophic for combating climate change. Let’s not forget that the Paris Agreement is the only barrier preventing a global temperature increase of 3°C or more this century”, he added.

However, Angelo also noted that the U.S. has historically been a major obstacle to international climate negotiations due to its unique internal requirements for treaty ratification.

“For the past 31 years, climate negotiations have largely been about responding to U.S. blackmail and tantrums. It might actually be better if they withdraw completely so the rest of the world can seriously address climate change without U.S. interference. It will undoubtedly be harder to solve the problem, but negotiations might be more straightforward without the Americans complicating matters”, he concluded.

Implications for COP30

On Tuesday, the 21st, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appointed Ambassador André Aranha Corrêa do Lago as president of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), to be held in Belém, Pará. Currently serving as Secretary of Climate, Energy, and Environment at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lago will lead negotiations for the global climate agreement.

Lago acknowledged the significant role of the U.S. as the world’s largest economy and one of the top CO2 emitters but also as a major contributor to climate change solutions through technological advancements.

“The U.S. has extraordinary companies and numerous states and cities actively engaged in the climate debate. While we are still analyzing the implications of Trump’s decision, there’s no doubt it will have a significant impact on COP preparation and how we address the absence of such an important country”, said the COP president.

Lago emphasized that the sovereign decision of any country to withdraw from a process does not necessarily mean the Paris Agreement cannot find ways to adapt.

“Even though the U.S. is leaving the Paris Agreement, they remain a member of the Climate Convention. Several channels of collaboration remain open, but this is undoubtedly a highly impactful political announcement”, Lago concluded.

Translated from Portuguese by Gustô Alves