The country's health and economic crisis should be major factors in voters' decision (Getty Images)
Início » Policy hub » Experts point out that the pandemic and the economic crisis will weigh on the voter’s decision in 2022
Experts point out that the pandemic and the economic crisis will weigh on the voter’s decision in 2022
24 January 2022
Marcela Leiros – Cenarium Magazine
MANAUS – A few months from this year’s elections, and with the articulations between the, still, pre-candidates to elective positions, experts point uncertainty in defining what the Brazilian electorate will prioritize, but say that the conduct of the health and economic crisis in the country should be predominant factors in the decision. CENARIUM talked to scholars about the new profile of the country’s voters.
For the political scientist and lawyer Helso Ribeiro, the voter profile does not change much from one election to another, what changes, according to him, are the “more urgent” demands. In 2018, for example, the greatest expression was of the anti-corruption discourse. But now, according to the expert, the vast majority of the electorate will be in search of agendas related to “survival”.
“There was, in the last election, a discourse focused on the new, so many new candidates ended up emerging using this. Perhaps this discourse of the new will not be predominant in the next election. But, in general, the great mass of the electorate is concerned with housing, security, health, education, and transportation. Now, of course, there is a percentage that wants to know about interest rates, culture and sports”, Ribeiro explains.
The political scientist also recalls the speech of former President Fernando Collor de Mello, when he called himself the “Slayer of Maharajas” in the fight against corruption in 1989. “There are fallacious speeches. I would say that the bulk of the population is worried about Health, which has never had quality, not today, not even 10 years ago, besides Education, Security, which terrifies all social classes in Brazil, which is the world champion of homicides, in numerical terms”, added Helso Ribeiro.
Betting on experience
Contrasting the search for new rulers, with promises of new management and perspectives, the also political analyst Carlos Santiago points out to CENARIUM that since 2018, when the President of the Republic Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was elected, the voter profile has changed a lot. Now, the indicative is that part of the population is looking for more experienced managers after the chaos impetrated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“From 2018 to now, the electorate has changed a lot, so much so that opinion polls are giving that governors or former governors are with very high approval ratings in the polls that analyze the 2022 electoral scenario. It is no wonder that Lula leads the presidential race and Bolsonaro also has a popular acceptance because of the experiences of both in administrations”, Santiago pointed out.
“In the 2018 elections, the vote of the new, of the different, prevailed. From 2020 on, it was the more conservative vote. Due to the political scenario and the pandemic, the electorate has sought to vote for politicians with administrative experience because of the pandemic environment, the critical situation of the economy”, he added.
Inflation in Brazil ended 2021 with a high of 10.06%, the highest increase in six years and almost double the ceiling of the official target, which was 5.25%. The main villains of the rise in prices were items such as fuel, electricity and cooking gas. The sociologist and professor at the Amazonas Federal University (Ufam), Luiz Antonio Nascimento, analyzes that the country’s economic growth will be a latent concern in the next election.
“After these three years of absolute misgovernment, not only at the national level, but also at the state level, the voters will return to pragmatism. We will not see, with the strength of previous elections, speeches with agendas ‘of customs’, ‘fighting violence’, etc. Not that we won’t have candidates with these platforms, but they will not ‘pump’ on their own. We should see strong discussions about resuming economic growth with the State as the protagonist and the defense of democracy as a way of returning the Brazilian axis”, he concludes.
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