‘Misinformation that Kills’: End the pandemic, not accountability

Paula Litaiff – From Cenarium Magazine

MANAUS (AM) – In the month in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared in Geneva, Switzerland, the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Importance (PEMI) regarding Covid-19, on May 5, data that points to the responsibility for misinformation that guided managers on the administration of the pandemic in the second wave of the new coronavirus, which occurred between November 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, the period in which the virus killed more in the Amazon and Brazil, comes to light.

The article entitled “Misinformation caused increased urban mobility and end of social confinement before the second wave of Covid-19 in the Amazon,” coordinated by biologist Lucas Ferrante, from the Federal University of Amazonas (Ufam), along with seven other researchers from five institutions in Brazil, published in the scientific journal Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities, pointed out that information disclosed, before the second wave of the new coronavirus, in the Sustainable Development Goals Atlas Amazonas (ODS Atlas Amazonas), coordinated by the researcher from the Federal University of Amazonas (Ufam) Henrique Pereira, agronomist and master in Ecology, generated a lethal level of misinformation. The ODS Atlas Amazonas argued that the virus would undergo remission “on its own”, within a study called the “logistic model”.

In the abstract of the article, the scientists point out: “Biased projections about Covid-19 in Brazil provided an attractive excuse for individuals and decision makers to justify poor choices during a critical phase of the pandemic. The erroneous results likely contributed to the premature resumption of classroom attendance and the easing of restrictions on social contact, favoring the resurgence of Covid-19. In Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon region, the Covid-19 pandemic did not end in 2020 on its own, but rebounded in a disastrous second wave of the disease.”

Contrary to what the ODS Atlas Amazonas reported, in the second half of 2020, Manaus (AM) experienced a second wave of Covid-19 whose high community transmission propitiated the emergence of the P.1 variant, known as gamma. The variant killed in cycles of up to 14 days and reached the entire country, overcrowding hospitals and collapsing the health system.

The second wave of the pandemic was responsible for a new collapse of the health and funeral system in Manaus, which was the first city in the world to have all Intensive Care Units (ICUs) occupied and had already been the first to bury its dead in mass graves, according to data published in the scientific journal Preventive Medicine Reports.

In Manaus (AM), the death toll was 4,430 deaths between January 1 and March 2, 2021, 1,050 more than in the first peak of the pandemic in 2020, during the same period, according to the Health Surveillance Foundation (FVS/AM).

At the end of the cycle of the second wave of Covid-19 in Amazonas, June 2021, the state recorded 13,249 deaths. Of these, 9,121 occurred in Manaus and 4,125 in the other 61 municipalities. On June 25 of that year, for the first time in seven months of the second peak, the state of Amazonas recorded no deaths from Covid-19.

Lethal misinformation

The study published in the Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities (https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01607-4) on April 24 this year showed that, contrary to the Amazon Atlas ODS’ contention that Manaus was entering the last phase of the pandemic in early June 2020, the numerical evidence did not point to the end of the pandemic, and the published projections were biased, without proper analysis and without solid scientific basis.

“Epidemiological data at the time suggested that no European country had seen infection rates high enough to prevent a second wave of transmission if behavioral controls or precautions were relaxed without implementing compensatory measures”, says the scientific paper coordinated by Lucas Ferrante.

The research also rejected the information that Henrique Pereira’s group defended that the reductions in severe cases (hospitalizations) and deaths (lethality) should be attributed to “complex coevolutionary mechanisms of the host-pathogen relationship”.

“A coevolutionary process involving the human species would presuppose the occurrence of a natural selection process in the human species, which would only be plausible on a time scale of many decades and therefore unrealistic in the case of the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus”, concluded researcher and PhD Lucas Ferrante.

Participating in the study with Ferrante were researchers Dr. Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida (Federal University of São João del-Rei – UFSJ), Dr. Jeremias Leão (Federal University of Amazonas – Ufam), Dr. Wilhelm Alexander Cardoso Steinmetz (Federal University of Minas Gerais – UFMG), Dr. Ruth Camargo Vassão (Instituto Butantan de São Paulo), Dr. Rodrigo Machado Vilani (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro – UFRJ), Dr. Unaí Tupinambás (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – UFMG) and Dr. Philip Martin Fearnside (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – Inpa).

ODS Amazon Atlas

Henrique Pereira’s group coordinating the ODS Amazon Atlas in June 2020 was supported by researchers Danilo Egle Santos Barbosa (Federal University of Amazonas – Ufam), Suzy Cristina Pedroza (Federal University of Amazonas – Ufam), Bruno Lorenzi (Federal University of Amazonas – Ufam), and collective health nurse Francynara Dias Lorenzi.

CENARIUM MAGAZINE sought to hear from the five researchers who signed the Amazon Atlas ODS bulletins of the dates May 10 and June 11, 2020, challenged in the article “Misinformation caused increased urban mobility and end of social confinement before the second wave of Covid-19 in the Amazon”, published in the scientific journal Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities.

Sought by the report, which asked if he would like to comment on the article, researcher Danilo Egle informed that he also coordinated the project and that he would consult the other researchers. “Our position is as follows: our project, officially, has nothing to declare about the study presented,” he said, in response to CENARIUM. Danilo is listed in the bulletins of the ODS Atlas Amazonas as technical coordinator of the research.

The report also contacted Henrique Pereira, who is listed in the bulletins of the ODS Atlas Amazonas as general coordinator of the research. He also said he had nothing to declare.

About the scientific publication

The Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities is an international scientific publication, with articles and research published in English. The publication states in its aims and scope that it “reports on scholarly progress in work to understand, address, and ultimately eliminate health disparities based on race and ethnicity”. It also reports that “efforts to explore the underlying causes of health disparities and describe the interventions that have been undertaken to address racial and ethnic health disparities are presented.” Also reported by the publication, “as the Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities” receives a large number of submissions, about 30% of submissions to the journal are sent for full peer review. The publication has an editorial board composed of several researchers from the United States.

Also read:

‘Disinformation that Kills’: ‘Logistic model was a serious mistake,’ say researchers on second wave of Covid-19

‘Disinformation that Kills’: Bolsonaro government used biased study to deny second wave

The subject was the cover story and journalistic special in the new issue of CENARIUM MAGAZINE for the month of May 2023. Click here to read the complete content.